India's GHG emission scenarios: aligning development and stabilization paths

Abstract

This paper presents emission scenarios for India, constructed following the IPCC SRES framework. Analysis spans 21st century and is centered on energy sector CO2 emission. Scenario stories presume no explicit climate intervention; however differences in endogenous profiles of key drivers like technologies have profound indirect impact on GHG emissions. Across scenarios, aggregate emission trajectories vary significantly, thus proving that endogenous development choices are key determinants of emission paths. The paper therefore argues that development policies and actions, which alter profiles of key drivers of development should be essential elements of climate mitigation strategies. Scenario results show that India’s per capita emission during the century would rank amongst the lowest. Stabilization at a 550 ppmv CO2 concentration would induce significant changes in energy and technology mix and economic losses in India. Stabilization burden would be lower in scenarios where underlying development paths are sustainable. The near-term energy choices, given their path dependence, could deliver sustained development and climate benefits. Aligning development and climate actions, therefore, is advisable and feasible. The regime instruments, the paper concludes, should aim to first support endogenous climate-friendly actions and then to induce climate centric actions in addition.