Information reliability and prediction of performance: role of initial opinion in multiplying model

Abstract

All the models of information integration predict that the greater the reliability of an information, the greater its effectiveness. However, they disagree with the relationship between reliability of information of one type and effectiveness of information of another type. The multiplying model predicts that reliability of information of one type should enhance effectiveness of information of another type; the relative-weight averaging model predicts just the opposite; and the adding and constant-weight averaging models predict that effectiveness of information of one kind is independent of the reliability of information of another kind. Experiment 1 demonstrated that Life Performance=Motivation x Ability. Experiment 2 tested the hypothesis that information reliability causes averaging of external information with the corresponding initial opinion of the judges. Accordingly, the effect of motivation information should be independent of the reliability of ability information and vice versa even within the multi-plying model. Results supported the hypothesis. Implications of this finding for test of multiplying models were discussed.