Prediction of exam performance by children: evidence for utilization of four pieces of information

Abstract

Kindergarten through fourth grade children (n=120) predicted exam performance of stimulus students from information about their current motivation and ability. Each kind of information came from two independent sources and so children had to integrate four opinions. Contrary to the previous finding that kindergarten through second graders lack capacity to utilize three or four pieces of information, all children of the present research did remarkably well in integrating opinion of four sources. Non-significant main effects in individual child analyses of the past research appeared to be attributable to memory constraints in stimulus presentation, low motivation of subjects, insensitivity of statistical tests, and/or irrelevance of information for judgment and not necessarily to integrational incapability in children. Results also showed that children in India average information about motivation and ability in prediction of exam performance in much the same way as do adults.