Speed of adjustment and inflation-output trade off in India

Abstract

This paper estimates the short-run aggregate supply curve for the Indian economy over the period 1950-51 to 2008-09. Methodological improvements in this paper include the technique of estimating adaptive expectations, constrained estimation consistent with long run equilibrium, and introduction of the extended Phillips curve. The study also attempts to investigate the question of speed of recovery and the choice of adjustment paths available to policymakers in face of adverse supply shocks. Contrary to previous studies, the present study finds a regular tradeoff between inflation and output or unemployment with inflationary expectations based on the experience of past three to four years. We also find that the subtle tradeoff between the rate of output recovery and inflation is negative in India thereby implying that a strategy of fast recovery is not likely to result in high inflationary pressures.