Framing and modeling of a low carbon society: an overview

Abstract

Asian Modeling Exercise (AME) studies show feasible GHG emissions pathways consistent with the 2degrees centigrade global stabilization target. The aim of the low carbon society subgroup is to propose frameworks, modeling methodologies, and workable roadmaps that will transform in-situ socioeconomic development to a sustainable low carbon society. This paper overviews LCS modeling studies and presents the LCS modeling frameworks and approaches used by the country modeling teams from Japan, China, India, Korea, and Nepal. The LCS modeling is soft-linked to global targets through regional emission constraints derived from the global stabilization targets. The disaggregated, yet soft-linked, assessments provide opportunities to articulate scenarios that include context-specific inputs, and thereby explicitly consider benefits and deliver more realistic and implementable roadmaps. We find that LCS modeling exercises are still at a relatively early stage in terms of modeling space, and need methodological enhancements. However, this approach offers considerable promise in a world where major emerging economies are undergoing rapid transformation, national and regional interests everywhere still precede global interests, and implementation of the carbon market remains fragmentary. Significant opportunities therefore exist for co-benefits to be gained, opportunities that could be the key drivers of short-term actions vital to the realization of the low carbon transition.