Solar And Bioenergy Scenarios For India: Modelling And Policy Assessment.

Abstract

Renewable energy resources and technologies are among the prime options to mitigate externalities from energy supply-chain. Typically energy externalities appear in different forms and vary across spatial and temporal spans. Local air pollution concerns sub-national policymakers; energy security concerns are dealt by national policymakers and in recent decades, addressing global greenhouse gas emissions and consequent climate change has emerged as a key concern within the international policymaking agenda. Renewable energy portfolio has vital interfaces with energy externalities. Therefore future of renewables will be shaped by competitive dynamics of conventional energy markets, .e.g. fossil fuels; learning rates of renewable technologies and also the policies to mitigate energy externalities. The India focused literature on renewable energy typically treats renewables as a single entity and the time horizon of energy market competition in most studies is limited to short (5 years) to medium-term (15 years). This research focuses on two competing and complementary renewable energy sources, namely solar energy and bioenergy. The future role of these two renewable energy forms is analyzed, using an energy systems model. The methodology follows scenario analysis, spanning a horizon till the year 2050. The analysis is carried out within the competitive context of the entire Indian energy system. We study the past evolution of solar and bioenergy in India, the different competing and complementing features between them in electricity, transport, and building sectors, their role in long term up to 2050 under different scenarios, and assess the role of policies in different time frames. An integrated modelling approach, using a bottom up energy system MARKAL model linked with a top-down GCAM-IIM model, is employed to analyze three main scenarios and four sub-scenarios. The analysis shows that: i) the share of bioenergy in primary energy mix declines from 19% in 2010 to 4% in 2050 under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and 7% under low carbon sustainable development (LCSD) scenario, ii) the share of solar energy rises from negligible in 2010 to 1% in 2050 under BAU and 13% under LCSD, iii) the share of bioenergy remains higher than solar energy in all through till 2050 under BAU; in LCDS bioenergy share remains higher than solar till the year 2040, but solar energy thereafter overtakes the bioenergy share; iv) imported biomass accounts for 32% of total bioenergy consumption in 2050 under LCSD, while in BAU it accounts for only 9.5%; v) coal consumption in 2050 declines by more than 50% in LCSD compared to BAU; vi) coal power plants with CCS are not competitive in BAU even in 2050, while under LCSD all coal power plants have CCS in 2050, and vii) the GHG emissions in 2050 under LCSD are 71% lower than that in BAU as a result of reduction in energy demand (25%) and fuel switch changes (46%). The key policy implications from the study are: i). evaluating solar energy and bioenergy separately is essential since competition exists at different levels, with non-renewable energy sources, amongst themselves, and also among technologies within individual energy types (for both solar energy and bioenergy); ii) whereas competition and complementarity between the two energy forms are simultaneously evident, but the nature and extent of competition and complementarity differ across the sectors , time frames, and scenarios, iii) there is no dominant policy; but a mix of well-crafted and integrated policies covering multiple dimensions, such as time-frame, sectors, geography and economics, will be needed to deliver optimal outcomes. The key contributions from research includes: i) use of an integrated energy systems framework and quantitative modelling, ii) construction and assessment of scenarios, keeping in view the competition and complementarity among the energy resources and technologies and iii) delineation of policy roadmap for solar energy and bioenergy in India.