Some comments on the debate on India's economic growth in the 1980s

Abstract

In this paper an attempt has been made to identify the exact year in which India broke the so called {hindu| rate of growth by employing the switching regression technique. The study suggests that the year 1981/82 is the point of break. The trend rate of growth of GDP which was 3.52 per cent for the period 1950/51 to 1981/82 significantly increased to 5.15 per cent thereafter. The primary sector exhibited break in the trend in 1980/81 and tertiary sector in 1982/83. The secondary sector showed two breaks viz. 1964/65 and 1981/82. From the results it appears that primary sector has led the process of break in the trend growth of GDP. The substantially high growth rate of GDP in the 1980s is the result of breaks in the growth rate of all the three sectors and not due to secondary and tertiary sectors alone.