Climate change and India: adaptation GAP

Abstract

Climate change is projected to have severe adverse impacts on India’s population, natural eco-systems, and socio-economic parameters. India’s vulnerability to climate change impacts is profound since around 650 million Indians are dependent on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods; around 250 million Indians live along a 7500 km of coastline that is at high risk due to sea level rise and extreme weather events; many of the 10,000-odd Indian glaciers are receding at a rapid rate; and deforestation is happening. India is concerned about climate change impacts. India occupies 2.4% of the global land area, supports 17% of the global population and contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable development is at the core of Indian planning process and India has been making huge efforts for enhancing the quality of life of her people including sustained poverty alleviation efforts. The number of people below poverty line has declined from 469 million to about 388 million during 2005 to 2010. Even then roughly threefourths of Indian population lives below a daily income of US$ 2 (PPP). This also highlights the extent of number of people who are vulnerable to adverse impacts of a changing climate. India has submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to UNFCCC on October 1, 2015 highlighting a strong GHG mitigation plan until 2030 and also providing a glimpse into national vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change across regions and sectors. According to IPCC AR5, adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks of climate change. The below 2oC target also unequivocally includes reducing the combined and cumulative risks of mitigation and adaptation actions. The Lima COP-20 (2014) agreed on elevating adaptation onto the same level as the curbing and cutting of greenhouse gas emissions. This report analyzes the climate change that is already occurring in India, projected future climate change, the proactive measures Government of India is taking to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and the Adaptation Gap that is ever increasing. India has experienced substantial changes in mean and extreme climate during the period of 1951-2013. For instance, mean annual air temperature has increased in many regions of the country. Other than the mean annual air temperature, prominent increase was observed in the number of hot days, night-time temperature, and growing degree days during the period of 1951-2013. Figure 1 indicates the regions that are experiencing temperatures equivalent to various RCPs currently. Based on our analysis, around 36 districts (5.5% of land area or ~36 million people) are observing temperatures equivalent to Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(warming of 4°C+)., 65 districts (11% of land area or ~65 million people) RCP6 (warming of 3°C-4°C), 346 districts (59% of land area or ~704 million people) RCP4.5(warming of 2°C -3°C) and the remaining 190 (24.5% of land area or ~405 million people) districts RCP2.6 (warming of 2°C). The RCP are internationally accepted scenarios to project climate change. Similary for precipation, these numbers are 63% area for RCP 8.5, 2.6% area for RCP 6, 24% area for RCP 4.5 and 11% area for RCP 2.6. 35 districts are facing the highest risk facing due to enhanced temperature now (following profiles similar to RCP 8.5). These are Aizawl, Baran, Bhilwara, Bundi, Cachar, Champhai, Chandel, Chittaurgarh, Churachandpur, Darrang, Dhalai, East Garo Hills, East Kameng, Guna, Hailakandi, Jaipur, Jhalawar, Karimganj, Kolasib, Kota, Lalitpur, xii CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: ADAPTATION GAP (2015) Lawngtlai, Lunglei, Mamit, North Tripura, Papum Pare, Sagar, Saiha, Sawai Madhopur, Serchhip, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Sivasagar, South Tripura and West Tripura. There are 408 districts for similar profile for precipitation and this are spread across various states of India. 22 districts which are following RCP 8.5 profile for both temperature and precipitation together are Aizawl, Baran, Bhilwara, Bundi, Cachar, Champhai, Chandel, Chittaurgarh, Churachandpur, Dhalai, East Garo Hills, Hailakandi, Jhalawar, Karimganj, Kolasib, Kota, Lunglei, Mamit, North Tripura, Serchhip, South Tripura and West Tripura