Indian economic forecast december 1993

Abstract

The government has begun preparing the people for the second phase of reforms by frequently pointing out that the next phase of reforms would be harsher but enrich their lives later. The tougher decisions about liberalisation in the field of labour law, agricultural reform and privatisation are still on anvil. The budget is not going to set the markets sizzling. It is widely expected that the next budget would be investor friendly and corporate sector would be given more importance this year. Markets are already discounting that and reaching new heights. Our growth forecast for 1993-94 remains at 4.2% and inflation rate (WPI) around 7.6%. However, balance of payment scenario has changed markedly in medium term as a result of lower crude oil prices, exceptional growth in exports and foreign investments. In medium term, GDP is expected to grow above 6.5% while inflation remains around 6%.