Critique of recent revisions with base year change for estimation of state income in India

Abstract

In the present paper, we have critiqued recent revisions made in the estimation of state income in India consequent upon the change in the base year of the National Accounts from 2004-05 to the new base of 2011-12. We have pointed out 10 major limitations of the whole exercise. The revisions associated with the new base 2011-12 series have serious implications on national and regional accounts estimation compared to the past. We have argued with concrete illustrations drawn from the experience of the Gujarat state that most of these impacts are negative on the quality, reliability, valid usage, interpretation and meaningful analysis of long term trends of sectors and the economy at the state level in the country. These revisions areperhaps not well thought out, carefuland consistent with the fundamental desirable characteristics of descriptive statistics and estimation of aggregates. In some cases they seem to be carried out hurriedly without paying attention to their likely impact on the whole system, processes and personnel involved in collection, compilation and generation of critical estimates at regional level. Our final recommendation is that the recent revisions associated with the new base of 2011-12 series should be abandoned for implementation at the state and district levels in the country till further revision of the base year takes place. In the interim period, let the old base of 2004-05 with the methodology continue at the state level.