Modelling the impact of ovulatory cycle knowledge on the number of children and age of women at first birth

Abstract

Unplanned pregnancies are an important public health issue, and 15% of unplanned pregnancies across the world happen in India. Ovulatory cycle knowledge (OCK) is an important yet relatively unexplored component in understanding unplanned pregnancies. This study tries to bridge the gap by establishing the causal impact of OCK on the number of children and months to the first birth. We have analysed the data of 459957 women aged 15 to 34 using the Indian Demographic Health Survey for the study. First, a binary logistic regression was used to understand the prevalence and correlates of the OCK. Second, we establish a causal effect of the OCK on the number of children and age of women at the first birth. We consider that OCK is potentially endogenous for both outcomes and instrument it using the average OCK of women above 35 in the same district. Our results establish a causal link and show that OCK is significantly and negatively associated with the number of children and months to the first birth. Governments and policymakers should focus on interventions targeting behavioural change to improve the OCK, especially for girls from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds.