Governance of low carbon transition-mapping livelihood intensity across the energy value chain in India

Abstract

The energy sector is responsible for close to three quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions today and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change and achieving the Paris climate change target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. (United Nations Climate Change, 2016) India is the third largest energy consuming nation with 80% of demand being met by coal, oil, and biomass (International Energy Agency, 2021). Gains from the Saubhagya scheme a 100% rural electrification program has ensured electricity access to 99.9% of Indian villages. (Ministry of Power, Government of India, n.d.) As per IEA prior to COVID-19 India’s energy demand was projected to grow by almost 50% between 2019 and 2030. While the pandemic has reduced this to 35% threatening India’s hardearned achievements in eradicating energy-poverty, the numbers nevertheless are high enough to ensure India’s contributions play a vital role in addressing global climate change (IEA, 2021). In this regard, the government’s aims of reducing GHG emission intensity by 33-35% of GDP by 2030 and achieving 40% of energy production through renewables are the step in right direction. The transition is already witnessing results, with no new thermal plants set up in 2020. A recent study by TERI predicts a 50% decline in demand for both coal and oil by 2050 (Shell, 2021). The impact of such a transition will however be huge for the employment sector. According to a Delhi based IForest think tank, 20 million people engaged in the coal sector currently will need reskilling and replacement if India, as India transitions to a net zero emission economy (forest, 2020). In this regard ensuring Just transition becomes a priority to ensure sustainable transformation. This would require accounting for the all th estakeholders involved in the Indian coal value china. With a huge chunk of informal workforce employed by the coal sector and dearth of organized data, measuring impact can be challenging. So, through the study we have tried to get a fair estimate of the employee count in each part of the coal value chain, to enable sound impact measurement along with policy formulation.