Effects of climatic variations on child morbidity in Bundelkhand region of India: a panel data analysis

Abstract

Background Morbidity and mortality related impacts of climate change are increasingly becoming a public health challenge especially among vulnerable groups. India has made significant progress in reducing its child mortality however there exists huge regional variations. This study focuses on Bundelkhand region, and analyses the association between climatic variables and morbidity in children. Methods Cases reported to district health office from routine surveillance system between 2009 and 2015, and climate data are used. Fixed effects panel data regression model is employed to find association of temperature and rainfall with incidence of diarrhea, respiratory illnesses and vector-borne diseases in children (0-5 years) controlling for development indicators - percentage households with piped drinking water, improved sanitation, and electricity connection. Results The panel data regression finds that incidence of morbidity in children is significantly associated with temperature and rainfall. With 1ºC increase in monthly average Tmax., the incidence of diarrhea increases by 0.11 cases per 1000 child population. Similarly, with 1 mm increase in rainfall the diarrhea cases increase by 0.10 and vector-bourne diseases increases by 0.08 cases with increase in 1 mm of average monthly rainfall. With 1ºC decrease in average monthly minimum temperature, the incidence of respiratory diseases increases by 0.018 units. Conclusion The climatic variables are significantly associated with the incidence of morbidity in children in Bundelkhand. The public health system must plan resource deployment for managing such morbidities. The significance of development indicators in reducing morbidity incidence is suggestive of the critical role of inter-sectoral coordination in achieving desired health outcomes