Technologies, policies and measures for energy and environment future

Abstract

Energy, economic activities and natural environment have close linkages that manifest in diverse problems like global climate change and local air pollution affecting human health, socio-economic conditions and ecological systems. The synergy between economic policies, energy policies and local, national and global environmental policies is therefore vital for sustainable national development as well as for cost-effective mitigation of global climate change. Major investment implications for energy use. These decisions offer opportunities to shift the future energy use patterns towards sustainable growth objectives through appropriate energy mix and technology selection decisions. This study examines alternative technology strategies, policies and specific measures for planning future energy and emission trajectories. The study addresses the following specific dimensions of the economy-energy-environment linkages in the case of India. 1. The regional and sectoral trends in energy use and emissions of local pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) in India. 2. The alternate long-run energy paths and their key driving forces. 3. The implications of these alternate energy paths for energy resources, emission of local pollutant and greenhouse gases, and human health. 4. The impact of local air-pollution control policies on the Indian energy system. 5. The impact of global climate change agreements on Indian energy system and their implications for Indian negotiating strategy in international fora. 6. Technology strategies that would harmonize the local and global environmental concerns with long-term energy policies. To address these diverse issues/questions, different methodologies have been used. Sub-regional and sectoral trends in energy use and emissions are estimated using internationally recommended methodology (IPCC, 1997). It has been adapted to future energy paths necessitate disaggregated study of energy demand and supply projections, environmental implications of various technologies and detailed assessment of technological progress and energy transitions in future. Therefore a bottom-up methodology with an end-use demand projection model, demand sector technology selection model (AIM/ENDUSE) and an integrated bottom-up optimization model for energy supply and demand sides (MARKAL) have been used. Technology characteristics and emission coefficients have been updated/added in these models.

A combination of widely accepted Gaussian and Box air dispersion models was developed to assess the human health impacts of local air pollution from an industrial unit. Gaussian Dispersion model first determines the mass distribution profile of emissions as one moves away from the emission source. Cylindrical Box model then converts these into average increase in ambient concentration levels in concentric circles around the source. Dose-response functions are then used to determine the health impacts. These diverse methodologies are integrated in a framework to harmonize local and global environmental concerns with long-term energy policies. Policy relevant databases for energy and environment technologies, energy consumption, emissions of local pollutants and greenhouse gases for all the Indian districts have been developed to support the analysis. The study provides the following important insights:

1- A five-fold growth in per capita GDP during 1995-2035 implies per capita commercial energy consumption growth by 2.24 times, electricity by 3.6 times, carbon emissions by 2.23 times, and sulfur emissions by 0.9 times. Technology emerges as the key driver of future growth. Operational efficiency improvements and gradual change-over in existing technological stocks in various sectors improve efficiencies resulting in slower energy consumption growth than the economic growth in later years. 2- The energy intensity of GDP, carbon intensity of energy use, per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP show gradual improvements. The commercial energy intensity of GDP improves by almost 50% during 2000-2035. 3- The economy is however not much de-carbonized in the absence of environmental interventions as the carbon intensity of commercial energy use reduces by only 3% over 2000-2035. It implies that strong de-carbonization of energy sector in India is not a possibility in near future and coal would continue to dominate the energy sector. Coal consumption increases by 2.8 times during 2000-2035 to touch 860 million-tons in 2035. Petroleum products increase by three times and natural gas by 4.4 times. However under climate change policies natural gas substitutes coal use, mainly in the power sector. 4- The per capita carbon emissions touch 0.51 tons in 2035 almost doubling during 1995-2035. These are, however, lower than even the present per capita carbon emission of most of the developed countries and China. Under a moderate carbon mitigation response, India has a mitigation potential of 170 million-tons during the Kyoto protocol period (2000-2012) contributing about US$ 1.9 billion. Most of this mitigation comes from energy efficiency improvement measures. Therefore a prudent climate change strategy for India may be to exploit this mitigation potential through global co-operative mechanisms, while simultaneously negotiating for per capita GHG emissions as the basis for national emissions entitlements in the long run rather than the present grant fathered norms. 5- The sub-regional and sectoral variability in Indian emissions implies that for a cost-effective GHG mitigation strategy, we should focus on the largest 50 coal-based power plants, 5 steel plants and 15 cement plants rather than on numerous dispersed sources. 6- Local pollution and GHG mitigation policies, although connected, do not move in sync since sulfur and particulate trajectories would be coming down in future regardless of GHG policies. 7- Controlling particulate emission emissions is the most important factor to reduce human health impacts of air pollution. Therefore monitoring the performance of Electro-static precipitators in industry should be strengthened. Reducing transport sector emissions through cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributes significantly in reducing health impacts.

Some of the research outputs have already contributed to ongoing literature and academic debates. For example, two papers have been accepted for publication in a peer reviewed prominent international journal while another invited paper is under review for international publication. This research has been developed in close interaction with Indian policy makers. Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Recommendations for GHG and local pollution mitigation debate have been tested and validated by being in constant touch with the principle Indian negotiator at an international conference. Technology and emissions databases have been reviewed by NIES, Japan and have also been put up on FICCI and CII websites. Other research outputs are also expected to be useful to policy makers, analysts, researchers, consultants and diverse interest groups.