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http://hdl.handle.net/11718/27580| Title: | Asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements: evidence from options markets |
| Authors: | Saurav, Sumit Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar Varma, Jayanth R. |
| Keywords: | Earnings Announcements;Volatility Smile;Earnings Surprise;Options Volume;Emerging Markets |
| Issue Date: | Nov-2024 |
| Publisher: | University of New Haven Press |
| Abstract: | We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA. Options volume (relative to spot and to futures) also exhibits similar behavior, suggesting that informed investors prefer options markets to spot and futures markets. Both options skew and put-to-call volume ratio can predict the sign of the EA surprise one day before EA, indicating that price discovery and information assimilation happen in the options market. |
| Description: | We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA. Options volume (relative to spot and to futures) also exhibits similar behavior, suggesting that informed investors prefer options markets to spot and futures markets. Both options skew and put-to-call volume ratio can predict the sign of the EA surprise one day before EA, indicating that price discovery and information assimilation happen in the options market. |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/11718/27580 |
| ISSN: | 2689-8810 |
| Appears in Collections: | Open Access Journal Articles |
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