Passenger transport decarbonization in emerging economies: policylessons from modelling long-term deep decarbonization pathways

Abstract

Reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement will not be possible without a deepdecarbonization of the passenger transport sector. In emerging economiesexperiencing rapid economic growth and social transformations, and large-scaledevelopment of urban areas and associated infrastructure, opportunities andchallenges exist when considering a broader set of mitigation options. In thispaper, we apply the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) approach to developand report scenarios on the passenger transport sector in Brazil, India, Indonesia,and South Africa. This approach supports an increase in the sectoral ambition ofcovering all drivers of change in transport mobility and facilitating collectivecomparison and policy discussions on the barriers and enablers of transitions. Thescenario analysis illustrates that all four countries can achieve reductions inemissions per passenger kilometres of 59% and up to 92% by 2050 while meetinggrowing mobility needs. Lastly, the analysis identifies short-term policy needed toaddress barriers and promote enablers.