Changing basis of demand for fertilizer

Abstract

To attain the need-based targets, fertiliser use in the country must grow by over 600 thousand tonnes per year for at least 6 to 7 consecutive years. What is the likelihood of cultivators' demand growing continuously by this huge unprecedented magnitude? What public policy measures are needed to generate such a growth in demand? In this article such questions are studied by identifying the past sources of growth in effective demand for fertiliser and examining their strength for further continuous growth. The main conclusions of the study are : (i) bulk of the growth in fertiliser use till mid-1960's was due to its diffusion on irrigated areas under a few fertiliser responsive corrunercial crops and old varieties of rice and wheat; (ii) this source of rapid growth in demand has nearly exhausted itself; (iii) despite the favourable impact of the current High-Yielding Varieties Programme, it appears that growth in demand for fertiliser will slow down much before the need-based targets are attained; and, (iv) to avoid this, concerted Government policy is needed to accelerate improvement in the currently available varieties of foodgrains, development of fertiliser responsive varieties of crops grown under unirrigated conditions, and expansion of the irrigated acreage.