Energy demand forecast for agriculture in India

Abstract

Earlier attempts on forecasting energy demand for agriculture have largely been based on aggregate macrolevel data and overall national averages and trends. Useful as they are in indicating some broad trends, these forecasts are unable to capture variations between crops, regions, operations and levels of technology used. The disaggregated energy demand forecasts are more meaningful for policy decisions. The present study is limited to only commercial or conventional form of energy, that is, electricity and petroleum products. Also, the energy demand estimations are restricted to six major crops, viz, paddy, wheat, sugarcane, cotton, oilseeds and pulses. In terms of energy inputs into agriculture, the demand estimations are made in relation to land preparation, fertiliser (NPK), pumping irrigation, harvesting (including transport from farm to village) and threshing (relevant for paddy and wheat only).