System dynamic study of apple movement from orchards to wholesale market

Abstract

Two northern states, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Himachal Pradesh (HP) account for most of the apple grown in India. Fruit is graded and packed near orchards and sent to Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), Delhi for auction. This paper presents a simulation model of fruit movement from orchards in HP to APMC market in Delhi. Daily arrival of fruit in Delhi as predicted by the model is compared with the data on actual arrivals from records maintained at APMC. The comparisons appear satisfactory. Simulations indicate that transit delays during peak phase will belong enough to reduce the storage potential of fruit to a negligible level. Cold stores in Delhi, therefore, tare likely to remain under-utilized, which is indeed the case. These results suggest that the systems dynamics approach to modelling is promising.