Integrated assessment of energy and environment future: linking policy to implementation

Abstract

Integrated assessment combines knowledge from different disciplines to analyse real world problems to provide solutions to decision-makers. In recent years,integrated assessment has attracted the attention of policymakers because of its ability to address complex policy issues. Many researchers have argued that an increased capacity to do integrated assessment is one of the crucial needs for effective policymaking. The area of energy and environment policy offers a good opportunity to apply integrated assessment techniques as it needs to address global, national and local concerns; long-term and short-term policy issues; mitigation and adaptation approaches; and policy and implementation linkages. The present research provides an integrated assessment framework for energy and environment, integrating diverse analytical tools to facilitate policy formulation and implementation.

The study has primarily focused on the following issues:

· Energy and environment concerns related to industrialisation, · Regional and sectoral analysis of emissions from large point sources, · Integrating local and global environmental concerns and policies to address them, ·International climate change negotiations and their impact on Indian energy system, and ·Integrating effects of long-term environmental changes on energy and infrastructure into national planning.

To address these diverse issues, different methodologies have been used,which have been incorporated in an integrated assessment framework. Previous studies in India have carried out national level energy and emission estimates. However, the control and implementation strategies need assessment at sub-regional and source level. The present study provides point source estimates for India. The emissions of local and global pollutants have been estimated using internationally accepted methodologies. The analysis also covers present and future energy use, demand projections, production processes and technology options.

Sectoral and regional desegregation requires use of bottom-up modeling approach. Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Local, an energy system optimization model, has been used for analysis of future technology paths and resultant energy and emission trajectories. This model provides simultaneous analysis of point and area sources. Geographical Information System (GIs) interface for the model has also been developed for carrying out spatial analysis.

Environmental assessment is normally carried out for impacts of economic activities on environment. The reverse link is most often ignored. This study analyses impacts of long-term environmental changes on selected activities using two case situations. Potential impacts of climate change on infrastructure have been explored through a case study of Konkan Railway. The other case analyses the impacts of climate change on energy use, over a period of 100 years, using another bottom up model ANSWER-MARKAL.

The study concludes that, the Indian emissions are coming fiom a large number of dispersed sources across various sectors; however, the implementation of emission control policies is not as complex. This is because 60% of emissions from energy use are contributed by large point sources. The results show that, this trend will continue in future. Thus, mitigation efforts concentrated on selected industrial locations can address a large part of Indian SO2 and CO2 emission problem. The LPS analysis contributes to effectiveness of emissions mitigation by indicating the locations and sectors where controls can lead to maximum benefits.

The local pollutant SO2, which causes health related problems, and a green house gas C02,which causes global environmental change; have the same origin in the energy use. However, the policies for mitigation of the two are independent and have a different cost structure. The continuation of the present policy regime will delink the two in next couple of decades. Thus, separate policy initiatives are required to address the problem of global and local pollution.

The impact case studies show that climate change will have significant impact on the infrastructure. The project developers will benefit from incorporating climate change concerns in the impact assessment, safety standards, and insurance computations. The climate change will also have an impact on energy consumption. This needs to be considered in the long-term energy planning exercises and in the technological measures for cooling arrangements in the buildings.

The key methodological contributions of the research include, developing and validating an integrated assessment framework, developing a GIs interface for spatial analysis of energy and emission patterns, and exploring the reverse linkage of long term environmental changes. The research was carried out in close coordination with the Indian policy makers and project developers. The key policy contributions of the research are, (1) linking of emission control policy with implementation through large point source management, (2) demonstrating the decoupling of global and local emission policies, (3) establishing the importance of climate change in long term infrastructure projects and (4) providing specific suggestions for energy-technology planning policies.

The outputs from the study have contributed to the literature and ongoing debates. The results fiom the research have been presented in national and International workshops and seminars. One paper from the study has been published in a refereed international journal, the second has been published, by an International publisher, in a book on AIM model applications. One more paper is under review in another refereed international journal.