| dc.description.abstract | This paper presents emission scenarios for India, constructed
following the IPCC SRES framework. Analysis
spans 21st century and is centered on energy sector
CO2 emission. Scenario stories presume no explicit
climate intervention; however differences in endogenous
profiles of key drivers like technologies have profound
indirect impact on GHG emissions. Across
scenarios, aggregate emission trajectories vary significantly,
thus proving that endogenous development
choices are key determinants of emission paths. The
paper therefore argues that development policies and
actions, which alter profiles of key drivers of development
should be essential elements of climate mitigation
strategies.
Scenario results show that India’s per capita emission
during the century would rank amongst the lowest. Stabilization
at a 550 ppmv CO2 concentration would induce
significant changes in energy and technology mix and
economic losses in India. Stabilization burden would
be lower in scenarios where underlying development
paths are sustainable. The near-term energy choices,
given their path dependence, could deliver sustained
development and climate benefits. Aligning development
and climate actions, therefore, is advisable and
feasible. The regime instruments, the paper concludes,
should aim to first support endogenous climate-friendly
actions and then to induce climate centric actions in
addition. | |
