India's non-CO2 GHG emissions: development pathways and mitigation flexibility
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Date
2006-11-01Author
Shukla, P. R.
Garg, Amit
Kapshe, M.
Nair, R.
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This paper analyses the future trends (2000-2030) in Methane and
Nitrous Oxide emissions across four scenarios that have been developed for
India. The future state of Indian economy in the next 30-years has been broadly
visualized under four scenarios proposed as combinations of market integration
(extent of liberalization, globalization and integration with the world markets)
and nature of governance (centralization vs. decentralization). The methodology
chosen for the development of these scenarios draws mainly from the IPCC SRES
methodology. The paper presents CH4 andNfD emissions for each of the scenarios
for all the major emitting sectors. The major sources of Methane emissions are
livestock and paddy contributing to about 65% of the total emissions in 2000.
The share of emissions from Municipal Solid Waste is also expected to rise with
increasing urbanization. Nitrous Oxide emissions arise chiefly from synthetic
fertilizer use (contributing 67% of total emissions) and from field burning of
agricultural residue. The paper also presents mitigation analysis for C02 and
CH4 and long-term, hundred-year analysis for C02, CH4 and N20.
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