| dc.description.abstract | The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future
emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets
and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions
pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The
underlying hypothesis of this article is that the dis aggregated national (regional) scenarios,
with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and
modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of
emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The
scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics,
including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates
the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions
pathways discussion, to begin with, considers lOO-year nonintervention scenarios. For the
business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding
to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In
conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions
in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments
and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization. | |
