Sustainable low carbon transport: an integrated policy framework and assessment for India

Abstract

Mobility is integral to socio-economic development. Transport sector‘s fuel mix imposes multiple external costs vis-à-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. The contemporary literature shows that these externalities are sizable and argues for aligning national development and global climate policies to gain co-benefits. The literature in the Indian context is short of quantitative studies that explore strategies to align climate change and development goals in transport sector. This research aims to fill this gap. We assess alternate future scenarios of the transitions of national transport system (till 2050) and delineate a roadmap of actions that best align national development goals and global climate change target Besides the conventional drivers like economic growth and demographic trends, the alternate scenario story-lines include different mix of environmental policies, transport technologies, infrastructures and behavioral changes. An integrated modeling framework is used to assess alternate scenarios in order to delineate the low carbon transport roadmap for India that optimally aligns national sustainable development objectives with global 20C temperature stabilization target. The short-term analysis follows the targets proposed under different missions in the National Action Plan on Climate Change. The modeling results show that even under a business-as—usual scenario the growth of transport energy demand decouples with the economic growth by 3% CAGR from 2010 to 2050. However the transport energy mix does not get decarbonized due to the lock-in of the transport technologies with the fossil fuels. The modeling assessment shows that actions to align development and climate goals need significantly different portfolio of transport technologies, infrastructures and change in consumption behavior. An optimal mix of policies that align climate and sustainable development goals includes fuel economy standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply in the long-term. The key contributions include quantitative modeling, scenarios analysis and a delineation of an optimal transport roadmap.