Indian economic forecast: August 1992

Abstract

On the eve of the present government's anniversary of assuming office, pessimism towards stabilization and reforms were well entrenched in the media. With the help of hindsight one may opine that it was the loss of political grip and later certain irregularities in the oney market which snowballed into a fraud and resulted in a pessimistic perception. Further meteorological forecast about monsoon precipitated the view that the economy is going to face stagflation. No one expects output to fall this year. The economy has grown in the first quarter of the fiscal year 1992-93, albeit slowly. Economic activity is expected to accelerate in the next few months. Inflation is under control and set to average just under10% for the year 1992-93; the central government fiscal indiscipline is almost under control and there are good indications that the kharif and the rabi crops may turn out to be bumper crops. But that is not enough for rapid sustainable growth of the economy.