Sustainable development and carbon neutrality: integrated assessment of transport transitions in India

Abstract

Dependence on crude oil imports, high correlation with economic growth, and contribution to air pollution cause the transformations in transport sector in India to have significant ramifications. Moreover, these transitions are to be steered through the global and domestic sustainable development and carbon neutrality goals. In this paper, we determine the energy-environment-economy implications of transport sector dynamics by undertaking an integrated analysis using a novel methodological approach involving two main aspects: soft-coupling the IMACLIM-IND and AIM/Enduse models; and back-casting approach with long-term benchmarks. We examine four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), development first (DEVF), carbon neutrality (CNT) and synchronous (SYNCH). Our synchronous scenario pathway reduces the crude oil and natural gas imports by 68% for the year 2050 compared to 2012 in the BAU scenario, leading to foreign exchange saving of 5.8 trillion US$ during 2013–2050. The envisioned transitions necessitate formulation of strategic policies which provide equitable access of transportation to all.