Optimal targets for the family planning programme

Abstract

Benefits and costs associated with family planning programmes of underdeveloped countries in general, and of India in particular, have been a subject of intensive investigations. These studies have been primarily used as a means for the justification of family planning programmes, In this paper, we have applied benefit-cost analysis to derive the economically justifiable targets for Indian family planning programmes. The targets are defined in terms of desired declines in general fertility rates (GFR). A demographic and economic model similar to Coale-Hoover is constructed to evaluate the economic consequences of different GFR paths. The cost-equations based upon the past data are used to estimate the costs of achieving various GFR paths. Benefit-cost analysis is used to compare these paths and derive optimal targets. The study shows that the benefit-cost analysis results are very sensitive to the type of economic benefits considered. Interest rates and horizon periods also effect the optimal targets. The analysis is then used to discuss the interactions among per capita consumption distribution, measures used and suggested to achieve declining fertility rates and financing of family planning programmes. It is stressed that a massive programme to reauce fertility rates may not achieve credibility unless steps are taken to achieve a greater equality in per capita consumption distribution.