Using crop outlook information for timely marketing decisions in government

Abstract

Reliable and timely information on crop prospects is not available in India. As a consequence, market planning of procurement, storage and distribution operations, and pricing of foodgrains and other crops is usually based on subjective judgements of the government officials about the crofj prospects; therefore decisions are ad hoc and sub-optimal. This paper outlines an approach which uses econometric models. It is shown that reliable and timely crop outlook information can be obtained much before harvest at a low cost. It is illustrated how use of such information by the agricultural institutions in the government can improve the management of crop supplies and demand more effectively.