Analysis of long-term energy and carbon emission scenarios for India
Abstract
In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of
development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories,
would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic
cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the longterm
trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market
reforms two scenarios – accelerated and decelerated reforms – are developed depicting fast and slow
progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated
market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment
risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other
hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is
low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another
scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the
baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over
and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (C) constraints has also been developed
and the results discussed.
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